The Bank of Ghana is anticipated to adopt a more restrictive monetary stance during the first half of 2026 as a proactive measure against inflation. According to market analysis by IC Securities, the central bank is expected to keep real policy rates in the double digits to prevent a second wave of price increases following recent tariff hikes.
This forecast follows a decision by the Monetary Policy Committee in late 2025 to lower the primary policy rate to 18.0%. Although this was a notable reduction, the current real policy rate of 10.0% indicates that the country’s monetary environment remains intentionally tight to discourage excessive spending and stabilize prices.
Financial experts predict that the central bank may halt further rate cuts in January 2026 to assess the economic landscape before making additional moves.
This cautious approach is supported by the 2026 budget, which stresses that any future easing of monetary policy will be gradual and strictly dependent on maintaining economic stability.
By keeping real interest rates relatively high, the authorities aim to protect the progress made in lowering inflation while remaining prepared to act swiftly if new risks emerge. This strategy ensures that the central bank can effectively manage market volatility while supporting the government’s broader fiscal objectives for the coming year.
